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I was considering a 70 model Vette with a 454, 390HP, 4sp. It was traded to a Harley dealer. It has about 50,000 miles and has no power options. It is blue with blue interior. Paint is OK and interior is good. Numbers match and it appears to be an original engine and transmission. The seller tells me this is only 1 of 19 70 model Vettes optioned like this. 2 questions - 1. How do I verify what he is telling me (he's basing it on the engine & transmission numbers which match and appear correct) 2. Any opinions on what it should sell for (he's asking $14,000).
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Re: Value 70 454 no power
What is he basing his numbers on? According to the Black Book, there were 17,316 cars produced that year. There is no available data as to how options were mixed and matched on cars, but only 4,000+ had power windows; almost 9,000 had power brakes; and 11,900 had power steering. Looking at these numbers, there must have many out there with no power options. -
Re: Value 70 454 no power
What is he basing his numbers on? According to the Black Book, there were 17,316 cars produced that year. There is no available data as to how options were mixed and matched on cars, but only 4,000+ had power windows; almost 9,000 had power brakes; and 11,900 had power steering. Looking at these numbers, there must have many out there with no power options.Comment
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Re: Value 70 454 no power
PS to last post: Add into the odds the fact that over 4400 cars had 454 / 390 engines. Some of you that are better mathematicians than I will have to figure this out.Comment
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Re: Value 70 454 no power
PS to last post: Add into the odds the fact that over 4400 cars had 454 / 390 engines. Some of you that are better mathematicians than I will have to figure this out.Comment
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Re: Value 70 454 no power
I'm no mathematician but I came up with a way to get 1 of 19. Based on the production numbers that are available for 1970, the following percentages can be easily calculated:
non-PW: 17316-4813=12503 or 72.2% of 17316 non-AC: 17316-6659=10657 61.5% non-PB: 17316-8984=8332 48.1% non-PS: 17316-11907=5409 31.2% LS-5: 4473 25.8% 4spd: 17316-5102=12214 70.5%
By multiplying all these percentages and multiplying by total production one arrives at about 211 cars. Assuming a few mathematical assumptions which I'm probably not qualified to explain and assuming that each color option was equally likely (no production numbers available for blue or any 1970 color), 211/11=19. Since there is no mention on whether the car is a coupe or convertible, I will go out on a limb and guess that it is a coupe (61.6%) and that AC was not taken into consideration when the calculation was made so the result is the same.
I'll also assume that the original post states "1 of 19", 70 vettes build like this.
When I tried to make a similar calculation using my own 1970 and using all the option possible, I came up with only 0.6 cars that were made exactly like mine! Beware, nearly anything can be stated and backed some how, some way with statistics.
TonyTonyComment
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Re: Value 70 454 no power
I'm no mathematician but I came up with a way to get 1 of 19. Based on the production numbers that are available for 1970, the following percentages can be easily calculated:
non-PW: 17316-4813=12503 or 72.2% of 17316 non-AC: 17316-6659=10657 61.5% non-PB: 17316-8984=8332 48.1% non-PS: 17316-11907=5409 31.2% LS-5: 4473 25.8% 4spd: 17316-5102=12214 70.5%
By multiplying all these percentages and multiplying by total production one arrives at about 211 cars. Assuming a few mathematical assumptions which I'm probably not qualified to explain and assuming that each color option was equally likely (no production numbers available for blue or any 1970 color), 211/11=19. Since there is no mention on whether the car is a coupe or convertible, I will go out on a limb and guess that it is a coupe (61.6%) and that AC was not taken into consideration when the calculation was made so the result is the same.
I'll also assume that the original post states "1 of 19", 70 vettes build like this.
When I tried to make a similar calculation using my own 1970 and using all the option possible, I came up with only 0.6 cars that were made exactly like mine! Beware, nearly anything can be stated and backed some how, some way with statistics.
TonyTonyComment
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Re: Value 70 454 no power
I got a bit caught up and forgot to mention that I really like PS with a big block!!! For me, $14K is too high for this reason alone. My 1970 BB has PS as its only "power" option and I love it. I've driven non-power steering BB and there's a hugh difference! But then again, I like to DRIVE mine and show it.
TonyTonyComment
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Re: Value 70 454 no power
I got a bit caught up and forgot to mention that I really like PS with a big block!!! For me, $14K is too high for this reason alone. My 1970 BB has PS as its only "power" option and I love it. I've driven non-power steering BB and there's a hugh difference! But then again, I like to DRIVE mine and show it.
TonyTonyComment
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Re: Value 70 454 no power
Bob,
Two questions, two answers, and plenty of info:
1) Outside of the 454 optional engine, this is nothing more than a creative way to sell you on the idea that "no options is an option". Reba and Tony have hit the nail on the head, with Tony showing you the popular way that's been used of deriving a derivative of a derivative of a derivative, etc. It begins with GM's facts (of numbers purchased-per-option/each year) and ends in speculation / opinion (with percentages). Not being critcal of the seller, but I don't think he has a clue to the "1 of 19" if his response to you was based on engine and transmission numbers. What do those have to do with it?
2) As far as selling price, more info is needed, and I think you should go back and thoroughly look the car over. Consider what you want when it comes to originality and driving. If your goal is to drive, then you're better off with it being more mechanically "perfect". If your goal is originality, then you'll be better off with more original parts / aspects of the car.
Smile along with the "1 of 19" and base your possible purchase on aspects that you can identify. $14,000 may not be out of the question UNDER CERTAIN CONDITIONS, but I don't think "1 of 19" is one of them. Is it "Survivor" material, coupe / convertible? I agree with Tony that more options, PS included, adds to the interest/use of the car, but I also enjoy driving my 68 427 that has no PS. The most important thing is that you'll need to enjoy your decisions, too. Best wishes. Tom #24014Comment
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Re: Value 70 454 no power
Bob,
Two questions, two answers, and plenty of info:
1) Outside of the 454 optional engine, this is nothing more than a creative way to sell you on the idea that "no options is an option". Reba and Tony have hit the nail on the head, with Tony showing you the popular way that's been used of deriving a derivative of a derivative of a derivative, etc. It begins with GM's facts (of numbers purchased-per-option/each year) and ends in speculation / opinion (with percentages). Not being critcal of the seller, but I don't think he has a clue to the "1 of 19" if his response to you was based on engine and transmission numbers. What do those have to do with it?
2) As far as selling price, more info is needed, and I think you should go back and thoroughly look the car over. Consider what you want when it comes to originality and driving. If your goal is to drive, then you're better off with it being more mechanically "perfect". If your goal is originality, then you'll be better off with more original parts / aspects of the car.
Smile along with the "1 of 19" and base your possible purchase on aspects that you can identify. $14,000 may not be out of the question UNDER CERTAIN CONDITIONS, but I don't think "1 of 19" is one of them. Is it "Survivor" material, coupe / convertible? I agree with Tony that more options, PS included, adds to the interest/use of the car, but I also enjoy driving my 68 427 that has no PS. The most important thing is that you'll need to enjoy your decisions, too. Best wishes. Tom #24014Comment
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PS: Re: Value 70 454 no power
Bob,
I wasn't necessarily trying to make a "separation" of driving and originality. If the aspects of the car work out to a "high combination" of mechanical soundness AND originality, then you will be getting closer to a "bargain". Work on his price. Tom #24014Comment
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PS: Re: Value 70 454 no power
Bob,
I wasn't necessarily trying to make a "separation" of driving and originality. If the aspects of the car work out to a "high combination" of mechanical soundness AND originality, then you will be getting closer to a "bargain". Work on his price. Tom #24014Comment
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