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Amazing where Chuck's original post on black/saddle '66 coupes has led --- so this is what a discussion board is ! My original post was an attempt to inject a little "method" into the estimation of option combinations for those interested -- let's face it, subconsciously or otherwise, most owners do like to know how their car stacks up against the whole of "Corvettedom" or a simple one-on-one competition. At the least, it could be a little fun, and even offer some ammunition against ads that cannot substantiate their claims. I was even careful to insert the words "estimate/probability/guess" several times to show that the method is not gospel.
It's been 30+ years for me since "Probability 101", but there is indeed a sound statistical basis to this exercise; it's more refined than the millions of possible combinations of 2 body styles, 10 colors, and 20 options. Large sample sizes (9000+ coupes out of 27000 cars), coupled with 6000+ Nassau blue cars translates into a probability of 2000 Nassau blue coupes (plus or minus X, 95% of the time, 19 times out of 20, and all the other qualifiers that pollsters use), providing that the choice of exterior color is not influenced by the choice of body style. (Don't get me started on the joint distribution alphas associated with red convertibles !)
I'll again emphasize that we should make full use of GM documentation. The ESL quantities are real numbers. If you know of a '67 with a 400hp engine and powerglide, you may state with absolute authority that it's one of 50 produced -- the General told us so ! From there, to "estimate" that between 28 and 36 of them were convertibles is not a big stretch. A London bookie will give you odds on that, but you'd have to wait for GM to release their detailed build data to collect.
It's been 30+ years for me since "Probability 101", but there is indeed a sound statistical basis to this exercise; it's more refined than the millions of possible combinations of 2 body styles, 10 colors, and 20 options. Large sample sizes (9000+ coupes out of 27000 cars), coupled with 6000+ Nassau blue cars translates into a probability of 2000 Nassau blue coupes (plus or minus X, 95% of the time, 19 times out of 20, and all the other qualifiers that pollsters use), providing that the choice of exterior color is not influenced by the choice of body style. (Don't get me started on the joint distribution alphas associated with red convertibles !)
I'll again emphasize that we should make full use of GM documentation. The ESL quantities are real numbers. If you know of a '67 with a 400hp engine and powerglide, you may state with absolute authority that it's one of 50 produced -- the General told us so ! From there, to "estimate" that between 28 and 36 of them were convertibles is not a big stretch. A London bookie will give you odds on that, but you'd have to wait for GM to release their detailed build data to collect.
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